Sat, Nov 19, 2011·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Winnipeg Jets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 18 | 110 | 213 | 431 |
| WPG | 318 | 215 | 17 | 640 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:45WPGBryan LittlePPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 7:00WPGBryan LittleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Evander Kane · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 10:15WPGAndrew LaddPPAssists: Kyle Wellwood, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.45 xG0–3
- P1 13:27PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: Chris Pronger, Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 5:49WPGJim SlaterSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
- P2 10:20WPGDustin ByfuglienPPGWGAssists: Andrew Ladd, Kyle Wellwood · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–5
- P2 16:09PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: Daniel Brière, Chris Pronger · Snap, 0.23 xG2–5
- P3 8:32PHIMatt ReadAssists: Scott Hartnell, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.19 xG3–5
- P3 17:46PHIMatt ReadAssists: Claude Giroux, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–5
- P3 18:46WPGNik AntropovENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–6
Penalties (19)
- P1 3:22PHIHarry Zolnierczyk: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 9:35PHIChris Pronger: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 10:15PHIDaniel Brière: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 12:52WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:50WPGJim Slater: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:54WPGJohnny Oduya: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:00PHIZac Rinaldo: Interference2 min
- P2 8:36PHIMatt Carle: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:36PHIDaniel Brière: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:03PHIAndreas Lilja: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:06WPGNik Antropov: Interference2 min
- P2 14:06PHIJody Shelley: Misconduct10 min
- P2 15:25WPGTanner Glass: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 16:56WPGTanner Glass: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:56PHIHarry Zolnierczyk: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:21WPGEvander Kane: Elbowing2 min
- P3 9:46PHIMax Talbot: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:39WPGEvander Kane: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:17WPGEvander Kane: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Talbot won the faceoff against Burmistrov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Giroux – Read2:34
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 2–0
- Brière – van Riemsdyk – Simmonds8:22
xG 0.35–0.20 (64%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Zolnierczyk5:05
xG 0.16–0.07 (69%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Shelley – Rinaldo – Couturier2:02
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPronger – Carle9:39
xG 0.38–0.22 (63%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Lilja – Meszaros6:42
xG 0.46–0.43 (52%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Timonen – Coburn8:35
xG 0.26–0.29 (48%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Little – Kane7:29
xG 0.54–0.07 (88%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Jaffray – Fehr – Burmistrov4:37
xG 0.35–0.07 (84%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Antropov – Wellwood – Ladd6:33
xG 0.14–0.34 (30%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Glass6:33
xG 0.07–0.43 (15%)attempts 3–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestFlood – Kulda7:16
xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Oduya – Bogosian9:04
xG 0.26–0.36 (42%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Stuart – Byfuglien11:01
xG 0.06–0.77 (7%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).