Sat, Nov 19, 2011·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Washington Capitals 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 18 | 015 | 018 | 141 |
| TOR | 216 | 410 | 13 | 729 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:39TORTim ConnollyAssists: Joffrey Lupul · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 2:30WSHBrooks LaichAssists: Jason Chimera, John Carlson · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 19:16TORMatt FrattinGWGAssists: Joe Colborne, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 1:18TORTyler BozakPPAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Dion Phaneuf · Snap, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 5:29TORPhil KesselAssists: Tyler Bozak, Joffrey Lupul · Snap, 0.14 xG1–4
- P2 17:12TORJoffrey LupulPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Phil Kessel · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–5
- P2 19:29TORCody FransonPPAssists: Tim Connolly · Slap, 0.05 xG1–6
- P3 19:16TORDavid SteckelSHAssists: Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–7
Penalties (14)
- P1 0:47TORJoey Crabb: Tripping2 min
- P1 0:47WSHAlexander Semin: Diving2 min
- P1 8:04WSHJeff Schultz: Interference2 min
- P2 0:17WSHMatt Hendricks: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:55TORCarl Gunnarsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:27TORCody Franson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:54WSHNicklas Backstrom: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 15:54WSHNicklas Backstrom: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:33WSHJohn Erskine: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 0:46TORPhilippe Dupuis: Interference2 min
- P3 14:38TORJoey Crabb: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:38TORLuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:38WSHJason Chimera: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:48TORJay Rosehill: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laich won the faceoff against Colborne
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Halpern – Hendricks5:10
xG 0.42–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Eakin2:01
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Knuble – Ovechkin – Backstrom3:04
xG 0.18–0.10 (65%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Laich6:25
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Alzner4:11
xG 0.88–0.21 (81%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Erskine – Carlson3:30
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Carlson2:33
xG 0.33–0.02 (95%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Orr – Dupuis – Rosehill3:41
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Steckel – Crabb – Colborne6:59
xG 0.23–0.45 (33%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Connolly – Kulemin – Frattin7:33
xG 0.06–0.44 (12%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Connolly – Rosehill – Kulemin2:19
xG 0.00–0.40 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson13:04
xG 0.47–0.91 (34%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Liles – Franson11:51
xG 0.25–0.76 (24%)attempts 9–14goals 2–0
- Schenn – Gardiner11:37
xG 0.11–1.12 (9%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).