Sat, Nov 19, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Rangers 0, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 05 | 05 | 07 | 017 |
| MTL | 111 | 110 | 210 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:45MTLErik ColePPGWGAssists: Yannick Weber, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 8:12MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Scott Gomez, Raphael Diaz · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 7:05MTLTomas PlekanecPPAssists: Erik Cole, Max Pacioretty · Slap, 0.07 xG0–3
- P3 13:47MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Scott Gomez, Michael Cammalleri · Slap, 0.05 xG0–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 3:14NYRRyan McDonagh: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 7:25MTLYannick Weber: Interference2 min
- P1 17:02NYRDerek Stepan: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:15NYRRyan Callahan: Elbowing2 min
- P2 17:08MTLJosh Gorges: Holding2 min
- P2 18:03MTLFrédéric St-Denis: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:03NYRMichael Del Zotto: Diving2 min
- P3 5:47NYRRyan Callahan: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:16NYRAndre Deveaux: Boarding2 min
- P3 8:16NYRAndre Deveaux: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:16MTLPetteri Nokelainen: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:16MTLMathieu Darche: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:16NYRAndre Deveaux: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:18NYRBrandon Prust: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:03MTLMathieu Darche: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFedotenko – Boyle – Prust3:02
xG 0.09–0.01 (90%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Richards – Gaborik – Callahan2:23
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Christensen – Deveaux – Prust2:21
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Richards – Dubinsky – Callahan7:47
xG 0.38–0.34 (52%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Del Zotto9:19
xG 0.28–0.03 (89%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Sauer – Del Zotto4:39
xG 0.32–0.19 (63%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Woywitka – Eminger9:57
xG 0.07–0.22 (23%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Cammalleri – Plekanec11:24
xG 0.60–0.02 (96%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Gomez – Moen – Eller7:05
xG 0.33–0.11 (74%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Darche – Nokelainen – Palushaj5:26
xG 0.06–0.10 (37%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty9:27
xG 0.15–0.65 (19%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSt-Denis – Weber12:20
xG 0.39–0.16 (70%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Emelin – Diaz11:51
xG 0.42–0.30 (58%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Gorges – Subban13:06
xG 0.41–0.41 (50%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).