Sat, Nov 19, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Nashville Predators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 09 | 212 | 16 | 12 | 429 |
| NSH | 17 | 110 | 112 | 01 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:29NSHColin WilsonPPAssists: David Legwand, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.48 xG0–1
- P2 3:29CBJJeff CarterAssists: Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 10:27NSHMike FisherPPAssists: Shea Weber, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–2
- P2 12:29CBJVinny ProspalPPAssists: Rick Nash, Fedor Tyutin · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 1:45CBJR.J. UmbergerPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.50 xG3–2
- P3 14:24NSHNick SpalingAssists: Shea Weber, Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.16 xG3–3
- OT 2:43CBJJames WisniewskiGWGAssists: Antoine Vermette · Slap, 0.04 xG4–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 0:03NSHJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:03CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:02NSHBrian McGrattan: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:02CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:59NSHMatt Halischuk: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:35CBJDerek Dorsett: Misconduct10 min
- P1 6:35CBJDerek Dorsett: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 6:35NSHJack Hillen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 10:31NSHSergei Kostitsyn: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:09CBJMarc Methot: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:04CBJRyan Johansen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:21NSHFrancis Bouillon: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P3 1:34NSHRyan Suter: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:47NSHRyan Suter: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:08CBJMarc Methot: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestProspal – Nash – Carter14:33
xG 0.56–0.44 (56%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Pahlsson – Vermette – Dorsett9:24
xG 0.10–0.13 (43%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Pahlsson – Vermette – Boll2:14
xG 0.07–0.11 (40%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Umberger – Letestu – Johansen8:29
xG 0.14–0.26 (34%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Nikitin17:50
xG 0.54–0.43 (55%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Clitsome – Moore5:28
xG 0.07–0.21 (25%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Methot15:47
xG 0.26–0.72 (26%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Wilson7:26
xG 0.27–0.08 (77%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Halischuk – Smith5:17
xG 0.17–0.10 (63%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Smithson – Spaling6:39
xG 0.17–0.15 (54%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Wilson – Smith4:26
xG 0.04–0.06 (44%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber16:04
xG 0.68–0.37 (65%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Bouillon – Klein15:42
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Blum – Hillen13:28
xG 0.36–0.34 (52%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).