Sat, Nov 19, 2011·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
St. Louis Blues 2, Minnesota Wild 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 19 | 010 | 15 | 03 | 1 | 227 |
| MIN | 07 | 18 | 116 | 01 | 2 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:39STLDavid BackesAssists: T.J. Oshie, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P2 2:37MINMikko KoivuSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 6:07STLT.J. OshieAssists: Alexander Steen, David Backes · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 18:22MINMikko KoivuPPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Cal Clutterbuck · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MIN Pierre-Marc Bouchard stopped
- 2. STL Alexander Steen stopped
- 3. MIN Mikko Koivu scored
- 4. STL T.J. Oshie scored
- 5. MIN Matt Cullen scored
- 6. STL Kevin Shattenkirk stopped
Penalties (4)
- P2 1:49MINCal Clutterbuck: Charging2 min
- P2 14:09MINKris Fredheim: Holding2 min
- P3 11:35STLIan Cole: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 18:12STLJason Arnott: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Oshie12:14
xG 0.95–0.35 (73%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Langenbrunner – Sobotka – Berglund3:19
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Nichol – Reaves – Grachev7:31
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Arnott – Langenbrunner – Porter8:35
xG 0.41–0.41 (50%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Russell11:50
xG 0.61–0.14 (81%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Cole – Pietrangelo14:33
xG 0.78–0.75 (51%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Jackman – Pietrangelo3:05
xG 0.01–0.02 (35%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Bouchard – Clutterbuck12:40
xG 1.04–0.28 (79%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
- Heatley – Koivu – Setoguchi14:20
xG 0.67–0.29 (70%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Peters – Staubitz – Gillies5:02
xG 0.02–0.08 (18%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Johnson – Powe11:28
xG 0.19–0.61 (24%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Spurgeon4:34
xG 0.68–0.38 (64%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Stoner – Fredheim7:27
xG 0.34–0.17 (66%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Stoner – Falk3:13
xG 0.13–0.06 (69%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).