Sun, Nov 20, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
San Jose Sharks 4, Colorado Avalanche 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 16 | 29 | 13 | 418 |
| COL | 19 | 014 | 014 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:25COLMatt DucheneAssists: Ryan Wilson, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 12:16SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 7:35SJSPatrick MarleauGWGAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Ryane Clowe · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 16:47SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Joe Thornton, Logan Couture · Snap, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 19:17SJSPatrick MarleauENAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.54 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:15COLKyle Quincey: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:14COLGabriel Landeskog: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 1:50COLRyan O'Byrne: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:38SJSDan Boyle: Interference2 min
- P2 19:25COLChuck Kobasew: Interference2 min
- P3 12:10COLBrandon Yip: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:30COLErik Johnson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 17:30COLShane O'Brien: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Marleau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Clowe – Mitchell9:21
xG 0.47–0.29 (62%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Thornton – Pavelski – Couture9:34
xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Handzus – Havlat – McGinn9:22
xG 0.12–0.14 (47%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Winchester – Murray – Desjardins7:38
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Vlasic12:03
xG 0.56–0.32 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- White – Burns2:18
xG 0.20–0.04 (81%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Braun5:10
xG 0.34–0.19 (64%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – Duchene – Landeskog13:20
xG 0.56–0.39 (58%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
- Kobasew – McClement – Galiardi4:18
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Porter – Yip – Stastny5:44
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Jones – Winnik – O'Reilly7:23
xG 0.21–0.25 (46%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Wilson8:01
xG 0.35–0.19 (65%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- O'Byrne – Wilson7:08
xG 0.12–0.04 (76%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Hejda – Johnson5:03
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).