Mon, Nov 21, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Calgary Flames 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 011 | 114 | 03 | 128 |
| CBJ | 210 | 19 | 111 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:01CBJJeff CarterAssists: Vinny Prospal, Nikita Nikitin · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 6:45CBJAntoine VermetteGWGAssists: Derek Dorsett, Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–2
- P2 5:28CBJJeff CarterPPAssists: Vinny Prospal, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.58 xG0–3
- P2 9:07CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Alex Tanguay, Rene Bourque · Snap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 18:29CBJRick NashENAssists: Vinny Prospal · Wrist, 0.66 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 3:54CGYTJ Brodie: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- P2 4:45CGYAlex Tanguay: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:58CBJMarc Methot: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:19CGYCory Sarich: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:11CBJR.J. Umberger: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Iginla
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKostopoulos – Jackman – Stajan8:15
xG 0.49–0.18 (73%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Byron – Horak6:00
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Glencross – Bourque10:28
xG 0.13–0.07 (64%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Stempniak3:03
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Brodie11:09
xG 0.32–0.17 (66%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Hannan – Giordano13:52
xG 0.98–0.88 (53%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Butler14:44
xG 0.16–0.19 (46%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestPahlsson – Vermette – Dorsett12:10
xG 0.89–0.45 (66%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Umberger – Letestu – Johansen10:45
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Bass – Boll7:44
xG 0.21–0.08 (72%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Prospal – Nash – Carter13:43
xG 0.26–0.79 (25%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Nikitin19:55
xG 0.96–0.46 (68%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Clitsome – Moore10:46
xG 0.49–0.07 (87%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Nikitin3:00
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).