Tue, Nov 22, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Edmonton Oilers 6, Nashville Predators 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 313 | 07 | 312 | 632 |
| NSH | 03 | 018 | 211 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:31EDMShawn HorcoffPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Taylor Hall · Backhand, 0.37 xG1–0
- P1 11:39EDMAles HemskyAssists: Ryan Smyth, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P1 15:51EDMJordan EberleGWGAssists: Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
- P3 5:00EDMJordan EberleAssists: Ryan Smyth, Ladislav Smid · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–0
- P3 11:32NSHJordin TootooPPAssists: Shea Weber, Ryan Suter · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–1
- P3 12:22EDMJeff PetryPPAssists: Eric Belanger, Ales Hemsky · Slap, 0.04 xG5–1
- P3 15:03EDMShawn HorcoffAssists: Sam Gagner, Ryan Jones · Slap, 0.09 xG6–1
- P3 19:40NSHJonathon BlumAssists: Mike Fisher, Jordin Tootoo · Wrist, 0.05 xG6–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 9:09NSHCraig Smith: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:45NSHJerred Smithson: Holding2 min
- P2 6:52EDMRyan Smyth: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:01EDMTom Gilbert: Holding2 min
- P2 12:24EDMJeff Petry: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:22EDMSam Gagner: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:22NSHMatt Halischuk: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:46EDMColten Teubert: Interference2 min
- P3 6:50NSHSergei Kostitsyn: Interference2 min
- P3 11:26EDMColten Teubert: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:07NSHRyan Suter: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:31EDMAlex Plante: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEager – Lander – Paajarvi7:25
xG 0.63–0.21 (75%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Horcoff – Hemsky – Hall11:57
xG 0.80–0.60 (57%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Belanger – Jones – Gagner7:21
xG 0.20–0.10 (67%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Smyth – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins11:54
xG 0.30–1.01 (23%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Smid16:04
xG 1.01–0.53 (66%)attempts 17–12goals 3–0
- Plante – Teubert12:28
xG 1.30–1.01 (56%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Petry – Peckham12:52
xG 0.15–0.49 (23%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Erat – Kostitsyn9:38
xG 0.71–0.33 (68%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Wilson – Smith4:34
xG 0.18–0.06 (74%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Legwand – Tootoo – Spaling2:20
xG 0.14–0.05 (75%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Tootoo3:52
xG 0.13–0.05 (73%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber12:09
xG 0.81–0.48 (63%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Bouillon – Blum10:06
xG 0.67–0.48 (58%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Bouillon – Weber2:32
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).