Wed, Nov 23, 2011·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 4, Buffalo Sabres 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 012 | 213 | 112 | 02 | 1 | 439 |
| BUF | 216 | 16 | 08 | 04 | 0 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:56BUFChristian EhrhoffPPAssists: Drew Stafford, Marc-Andre Gragnani · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 15:22BUFThomas VanekPPAssists: Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 3:37BOSTyler SeguinPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Rich Peverley · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 11:02BUFTJ BrennanAssists: Derek Roy, Marc-Andre Gragnani · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 16:00BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 3:35BOSZdeno CharaPPAssists: Milan Lucic, David Krejci · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. BUF Thomas Vanek stopped
- 2. BOS Tyler Seguin stopped
- 3. BUF Nathan Gerbe stopped
- 4. BOS Rich Peverley stopped
- 5. BUF Jason Pominville stopped
- 6. BOS David Krejci stopped
- 7. BUF Derek Roy stopped
- 8. BOS Patrice Bergeron stopped
- 9. BUF Drew Stafford stopped
- 10. BOS Benoit Pouliot scored
Penalties (21)
- P1 1:23BUFPaul Gaustad: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:23BOSMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:31BOSBenoit Pouliot: Elbowing2 min
- P1 2:31BUFCorey Tropp: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 9:01BOSMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:33BUFRobyn Regehr: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:33BOSZdeno Chara: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 11:33BUFCorey Tropp: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:33BOSAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:33BOSAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:37BOSDennis Seidenberg: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:13BUFLuke Adam: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:08BUFCorey Tropp: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:21BUFMatt Ellis: Interference2 min
- P2 12:14BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Interference2 min
- P2 18:36BUFDrew Stafford: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:36BUFDrew Stafford: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:36BOSAndrew Ference: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:36BOSAndrew Ference: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:11BUFDerek Roy: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:57BOSDavid Krejci: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Campbell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Krejci – Lucic10:22
xG 0.78–0.24 (76%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Kelly – Peverley – Pouliot8:41
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Bergeron – Marchand – Seguin9:20
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille6:16
xG 0.05–0.42 (10%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk9:39
xG 1.14–0.20 (85%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Boychuk2:10
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Ference – Boychuk5:09
xG 0.09–0.10 (46%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Stafford – Leino6:23
xG 0.24–0.11 (69%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Gerbe – Tropp7:46
xG 0.18–0.21 (46%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Ellis – Tropp2:18
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Hecht – Pominville – Vanek9:49
xG 0.52–0.81 (39%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ehrhoff – Sekera13:41
xG 0.20–0.28 (42%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Gragnani – Brennan9:13
xG 0.16–0.44 (26%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Regehr – Leopold12:17
xG 0.64–1.02 (39%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).