Wed, Nov 23, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Philadelphia Flyers 4, New York Islanders 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 19 | 112 | 111 | 11 | 433 |
| NYI | 39 | 013 | 07 | 03 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:18PHIAndrej MeszarosAssists: Max Talbot, Matt Carle · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 0:37NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Michael Grabner · Snap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 10:26NYIKyle OkposoPPAssists: Josh Bailey, Michael Grabner · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–2
- P1 18:29NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Kyle Okposo, Frans Nielsen · Snap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 5:24PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 14:18PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
- OT 2:34PHIDaniel BrièreGWGAssists: Scott Hartnell, Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:01NYIMicheal Haley: Interference2 min
- P1 8:47PHIZac Rinaldo: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 15:27PHIClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:40NYIPA Parenteau: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 3:25NYISteve Staios: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:32NYITravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:32PHIHarry Zolnierczyk: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:14PHIBraydon Coburn: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:17NYISteve Staios: Holding2 min
- OT 0:21PHIScott Hartnell: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Talbot
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – van Riemsdyk – Simmonds8:28
xG 0.45–0.35 (56%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Talbot – Voracek – Read5:25
xG 0.32–0.27 (54%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Read2:29
xG 0.10–0.09 (53%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Rinaldo – Zolnierczyk – Couturier5:10
xG 0.11–0.20 (36%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLilja – Meszaros4:44
xG 0.24–0.06 (81%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Coburn – Bourdon2:00
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Carle – Meszaros4:25
xG 0.32–0.20 (62%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Moulson – Tavares14:42
xG 0.89–0.40 (69%)attempts 16–18goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner10:20
xG 0.90–0.73 (55%)attempts 14–15goals 2–0
- Pandolfo – Comeau – Haley3:43
xG 0.05–0.11 (29%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Bailey – Ullstrom – Martin6:05
xG 0.18–0.53 (25%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Jurcina4:48
xG 0.50–0.17 (75%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Staios – Streit13:05
xG 0.79–0.52 (60%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Mottau – Jurcina5:55
xG 0.20–0.16 (55%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).