Wed, Nov 23, 2011·Verizon Center, Washington
Winnipeg Jets 3, Washington Capitals 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 210 | 09 | 16 | 00 | 325 |
| WSH | 29 | 114 | 013 | 11 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:23WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 13:21WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Nik Antropov, Kyle Wellwood · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 13:33WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Brooks Laich, Karl Alzner · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P1 16:30WPGKyle WellwoodAssists: Andrew Ladd, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 3:08WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Troy Brouwer, Dmitry Orlov · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 12:36WPGBryan LittleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Flood · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- OT 1:52WSHJason ChimeraGWGAssists: Dennis Wideman, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:36WPGMark Stuart: Interference2 min
- P2 4:48WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:34WSHMathieu Perreault: Boarding2 min
- P2 12:14WSHMike Knuble: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:59WPGNik Antropov: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:59WSHBrooks Laich: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:16WPGMark Stuart: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Johansson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestAntropov – Wellwood – Ladd12:04
xG 0.53–0.33 (62%)attempts 19–8goals 2–0
- Wheeler – Little – Kane13:11
xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Thorburn – Slater – Glass8:13
xG 0.05–0.30 (13%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Slater – Fehr – Glass3:37
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bogosian16:33
xG 0.41–0.36 (53%)attempts 13–23goals 2–0
- Oduya – Flood10:48
xG 0.19–0.57 (25%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Stuart – Byfuglien14:19
xG 0.33–0.86 (28%)attempts 17–14goals 1–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Laich – Semin9:58
xG 0.67–0.06 (92%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Brouwer – Backstrom11:41
xG 0.69–0.17 (80%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Halpern – Hendricks – Perreault3:05
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Knuble – Johansson – Eakin6:58
xG 0.08–0.08 (47%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Orlov13:48
xG 0.79–0.20 (80%)attempts 16–7goals 2–1
- Hamrlik – Wideman16:59
xG 0.67–0.19 (78%)attempts 22–9goals 0–2
- Alzner – Carlson5:09
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).