Fri, Nov 25, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
New Jersey Devils 1, New York Islanders 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 05 | 111 | 07 | 123 |
| NYI | 08 | 06 | 09 | 023 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:13NJDPetr SykoraPPGWGAssists: Adam Larsson, Adam Henrique · Slap, 0.21 xG1–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:54NYIMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:54NJDCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:14NJDBryce Salvador: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:41NJDMattias Tedenby: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:11NJDBrad Mills: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:35NYIMichael Grabner: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:29NYITravis Hamonic: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:14NJDZach Parise: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestSykora – Elias – Zubrus10:41
xG 0.48–0.12 (80%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Parise – Henrique14:17
xG 0.81–0.47 (64%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Sestito – Tedenby4:06
xG 0.30–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Sestito – Carter8:41
xG 0.01–0.19 (6%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalvador – Volchenkov11:25
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Fayne15:29
xG 0.67–0.40 (63%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson10:29
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Pandolfo – Haley – Martin4:16
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Rolston – Bailey – Ullstrom9:11
xG 0.02–0.24 (9%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares13:53
xG 0.26–0.48 (35%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner12:41
xG 0.18–0.66 (21%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Staios – Streit14:33
xG 0.28–0.43 (39%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Mottau – Jurcina10:13
xG 0.09–0.43 (17%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic18:07
xG 0.34–0.70 (32%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).