Fri, Nov 25, 2011·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Edmonton Oilers 5, Minnesota Wild 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 28 | 110 | 211 | 529 |
| MIN | 113 | 16 | 013 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:15EDMRyan SmythAssists: Jordan Eberle, Theo Peckham · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–0
- P1 16:29EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Sam Gagner, Eric Belanger · Backhand, 0.37 xG2–0
- P1 19:50MINDevin SetoguchiPPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.48 xG2–1
- P2 9:00MINPierre-Marc BouchardUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
- P2 15:29EDMTaylor HallGWGAssists: Tom Gilbert, Shawn Horcoff · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 7:28EDMShawn HorcoffAssists: Ales Hemsky, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 18:37EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsENAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ryan Smyth · Wrist, 0.70 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:35MINBrad Staubitz: Interference2 min
- P1 6:35MINBrad Staubitz: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:51MINBrad Staubitz: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:51MINBrad Staubitz: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:13EDMSam Gagner: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:20EDMTheo Peckham: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:34EDMTom Gilbert: Interference2 min
- P3 3:50EDMDarcy Hordichuk: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Horcoff
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Hemsky – Hall11:30
xG 0.65–0.45 (59%)attempts 15–6goals 2–0
- Hordichuk – Petrell – Lander3:43
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Belanger – Jones – Gagner10:25
xG 0.54–0.67 (45%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Smyth – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins10:58
xG 0.46–0.59 (44%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Smid14:34
xG 0.78–0.19 (81%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Peckham – Teubert12:35
xG 0.46–0.30 (61%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Whitney – Petry11:17
xG 0.62–1.15 (35%)attempts 7–15goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Bouchard – Clutterbuck9:45
xG 1.14–0.38 (75%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Peters – Staubitz – Gillies4:11
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Heatley – Koivu – Setoguchi11:28
xG 0.20–0.78 (21%)attempts 9–13goals 0–2
- Brodziak – Johnson – Powe10:20
xG 0.15–0.80 (16%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Falk – Prosser12:33
xG 0.97–1.03 (49%)attempts 11–10goals 1–2
- Schultz – Stoner13:25
xG 0.16–0.26 (38%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon14:53
xG 0.63–0.89 (42%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).