Fri, Nov 25, 2011·Verizon Center, Washington
New York Rangers 6, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 08 | 415 | 210 | 633 |
| WSH | 08 | 29 | 14 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:37NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Derek Stepan, Artem Anisimov · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 6:52NYRArtem AnisimovPPAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 7:55NYRRuslan FedotenkoAssists: Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 8:53WSHTroy BrouwerAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–1
- P2 12:52WSHJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Dmitry Orlov · Slap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 16:49NYRBrian BoyleGWGAssists: John Mitchell, Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.46 xG4–2
- P3 4:15NYRBrad RichardsAssists: Ryan Callahan, Dan Girardi · Tip-in, 0.07 xG5–2
- P3 5:57WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–3
- P3 11:40NYRRuslan FedotenkoAssists: Ryan Callahan, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.19 xG6–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:10NYRMichael Sauer: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:56WSHAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:25NYRBrian Boyle: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:31WSHRoman Hamrlik: Holding2 min
- P1 17:56WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:43WSHCody Eakin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:09NYRMichael Sauer: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 12:36WSHMike Knuble: Holding2 min
- P3 16:21NYRMichael Del Zotto: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Laich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Fedotenko – Callahan13:12
xG 0.77–0.06 (92%)attempts 16–5goals 3–0
- Boyle – Mitchell – Hagelin8:26
xG 0.53–0.21 (72%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Avery – Dubinsky – Prust6:10
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Anisimov – Stepan11:37
xG 0.64–0.59 (52%)attempts 13–13goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestSauer – Del Zotto15:16
xG 0.85–0.10 (89%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Girardi – McDonagh20:00
xG 1.29–0.64 (67%)attempts 27–17goals 3–2
- Woywitka – Eminger7:31
xG 0.07–0.20 (27%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWard – Johansson – Eakin6:21
xG 0.24–0.07 (78%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Knuble – Johansson – Eakin2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Knuble – Halpern – Hendricks3:00
xG 0.04–0.07 (32%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Chimera – Ward – Laich2:40
xG 0.02–0.12 (11%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Carlson15:36
xG 0.72–0.46 (61%)attempts 13–8goals 2–1
- Alzner – Orlov12:44
xG 0.13–0.44 (23%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Wideman12:38
xG 0.08–0.89 (8%)attempts 8–15goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).