Fri, Nov 25, 2011·Honda Center, Anaheim
Chicago Blackhawks 6, Anaheim Ducks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 29 | 017 | 416 | 642 |
| ANA | 312 | 15 | 111 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:14ANABobby RyanAssists: Corey Perry, Toni Lydman · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–1
- P1 2:13ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Teemu Selanne, Saku Koivu · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 6:09CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 14:36ANATeemu SelannePPAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Cam Fowler · Slap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P1 17:38CHIDave BollandPPAssists: Andrew Brunette, Marcus Kruger · Slap, 0.14 xG2–3
- P2 8:41ANABobby RyanAssists: Luca Sbisa, Ryan Getzlaf · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 1:04CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Duncan Keith, Viktor Stalberg · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 1:32CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Jonathan Toews, Viktor Stalberg · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–4
- P3 3:33CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–4
- P3 9:22CHIJonathan ToewsPPGWGAssists: Duncan Keith, Nick Leddy · Tip-in, 0.57 xG6–4
- P3 19:52ANACorey PerryAssists: Saku Koivu, Ryan Getzlaf · Backhand, 0.31 xG6–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:45CHIJonathan Toews: Holding2 min
- P1 8:54ANALuca Sbisa: Boarding2 min
- P1 11:17ANAToni Lydman: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:37CHIMarcus Kruger: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:59ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:46ANATeemu Selanne: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:58ANAToni Lydman: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:41CHIDaniel Carcillo: Interference2 min
- P3 6:11ANACorey Perry: Interference2 min
- P3 8:09ANASaku Koivu: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bolland won the faceoff against Maxwell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Stalberg – Toews4:14
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 3–0
- Brunette – Bolland – Bickell3:21
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Brunette – Bolland – Kruger3:39
xG 0.09–0.10 (48%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hossa – Frolik – Kane5:54
xG 0.22–0.25 (48%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Leddy7:19
xG 0.43–0.06 (88%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- O'Donnell – Montador6:57
xG 0.45–0.22 (67%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Keith – Seabrook7:36
xG 0.48–0.29 (62%)attempts 13–5goals 1–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Koivu – Cogliano10:59
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Gordon – Beleskey – McMillan2:28
xG 0.01–0.09 (13%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Hagman – Maxwell – Smith-Pelly5:44
xG 0.10–0.24 (29%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan11:35
xG 0.74–1.05 (41%)attempts 9–18goals 2–4
Defence pairs
- bestBrookbank – Guenin6:00
xG 0.16–0.09 (65%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Lydman – Fowler8:15
xG 0.71–0.68 (51%)attempts 6–11goals 2–2
- Lydman – Sbisa5:11
xG 0.27–0.34 (45%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).