Fri, Nov 25, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
Winnipeg Jets 3, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 114 | 113 | 13 | 330 |
| CAR | 07 | 14 | 010 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:46WPGEvander KaneAssists: Johnny Oduya · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 5:17CARJiri TlustyAssists: Brandon Sutter, Jamie McBain · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 6:25WPGAndrew LaddGWGAssists: Zach Bogosian, Nik Antropov · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 19:51WPGBryan LittleENAssists: Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.71 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:01WPGZach Bogosian: Interference2 min
- P1 4:23WPGEric Fehr: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:43CARJeff Skinner: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:20WPGMark Flood: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:42WPGMark Stuart: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Fehr – Stapleton2:19
xG 0.50–0.03 (94%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Little – Kane11:02
xG 0.58–0.43 (57%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Fehr – Little – Kane2:21
xG 0.10–0.08 (54%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Slater – Glass – Burmistrov9:53
xG 0.30–0.37 (45%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFlood – Kulda8:28
xG 0.81–0.25 (77%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Oduya – Bogosian13:50
xG 0.57–0.49 (53%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Stuart – Bogosian2:00
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Staal – Skinner10:52
xG 0.48–0.20 (70%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – LaRose – Staal2:04
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Jokinen – Skinner2:18
xG 0.16–0.04 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Jokinen – LaRose7:26
xG 0.75–0.71 (52%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – McBain3:28
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Allen – Gleason2:29
xG 0.25–0.11 (70%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Gleason – Faulk14:44
xG 0.84–0.84 (50%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).