Fri, Nov 25, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Florida Panthers 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 07 | 013 | 18 | 13 | 231 |
| FLA | 05 | 113 | 06 | 00 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:38FLATomas FleischmannAssists: Stephen Weiss · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 8:59TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Martin St. Louis · Tip-in, 0.25 xG1–1
- OT 2:29TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Martin St. Louis, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:55TBLEric Brewer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:48TBLBrett Clark: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:47TBLBrett Clark: Interference2 min
- P3 13:01FLAMichal Repik: Interference2 min
- P3 13:16TBLSteven Stamkos: Interference2 min
- OT 0:48FLADmitry Kulikov: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Lecavalier – Stamkos3:46
xG 0.67–0.07 (91%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Hall – Thompson – Tyrell7:25
xG 0.21–0.12 (62%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Moore – Shannon – Pyatt3:18
xG 0.08–0.12 (40%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Moore – Pyatt – Connolly5:25
xG 0.17–0.22 (43%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Hedman17:28
xG 0.86–0.59 (59%)attempts 20–16goals 0–0
- Clark – Kubina10:54
xG 0.14–0.07 (68%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Gilroy12:44
xG 0.27–0.59 (31%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg13:47
xG 0.41–0.36 (53%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Bergenheim – Matthias – Dadonov3:25
xG 0.07–0.02 (77%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Skille – Matthias – Dadonov5:21
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Bergenheim – Santorelli – Skille2:58
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Kulikov14:35
xG 0.22–0.14 (62%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Campbell – Garrison18:45
xG 0.94–1.00 (48%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson9:47
xG 0.16–0.55 (23%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).