Sat, Nov 26, 2011·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Islanders 3, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 17 | 110 | 19 | 326 |
| NJD | 05 | 19 | 112 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:28NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: PA Parenteau, Milan Jurcina · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 4:20NJDAdam LarssonAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Adam Henrique · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 11:59NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Brian Rolston · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 3:59NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Zach Parise, Ilya Kovalchuk · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 5:51NYIMichael GrabnerSHGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.17 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:08NJDBryce Salvador: Boarding2 min
- P2 5:44NYIJosh Bailey: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:34NYIJosh Bailey: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:01NYIMichael Grabner: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:19NJDIlya Kovalchuk: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Elias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Grabner11:56
xG 1.14–0.48 (70%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares12:48
xG 0.48–0.06 (88%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Rolston – Bailey – Ullstrom9:50
xG 0.28–0.22 (56%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Pandolfo – Haley – Martin4:58
xG 0.06–0.15 (30%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- MacDonald – Hamonic17:25
xG 0.28–0.32 (46%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Jurcina – MacDonald2:14
xG 0.02–0.10 (19%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Mottau – Jurcina7:30
xG 0.05–0.16 (24%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Parise – Henrique11:44
xG 0.53–0.43 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 2–1
- Clarkson – Sestito – Carter5:02
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Janssen – Mills – Tedenby3:24
xG 0.10–0.02 (83%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Sestito – Tedenby4:29
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Larsson13:57
xG 0.79–0.49 (62%)attempts 9–9goals 1–2
- Salvador – Volchenkov13:37
xG 0.41–0.68 (38%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Tallinder – Fayne17:04
xG 0.34–0.73 (32%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).