Sat, Nov 26, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York
Philadelphia Flyers 0, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 07 | 08 | 014 | 029 |
| NYR | 012 | 111 | 19 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:54NYRBrad RichardsPPGWGAssists: Dan Girardi, Michael Del Zotto · Slap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P3 5:06NYRCarl HagelinAssists: Ryan McDonagh, John Mitchell · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:04NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:04PHIZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:20PHIWayne Simmonds: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 9:20NYRBrandon Prust: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 11:26NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:26PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:57PHIAndrej Meszaros: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:32NYRRyan McDonagh: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:45PHIDaniel Brière: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:37NYRBrian Boyle: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:37PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:48NYRRyan McDonagh: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Talbot won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Giroux – Voracek14:51
xG 0.79–0.37 (68%)attempts 23–13goals 0–0
- Brière – Simmonds – Read3:24
xG 0.20–0.14 (58%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Brière – Nodl – Read4:24
xG 0.01–0.12 (11%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Shelley – Zolnierczyk – Couturier3:50
xG 0.09–0.23 (28%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Meszaros7:40
xG 0.48–0.04 (92%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Coburn – Meszaros2:45
xG 0.20–0.08 (72%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Coburn – Carle2:18
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Mitchell – Hagelin7:17
xG 0.79–0.23 (78%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Richards – Fedotenko – Callahan12:28
xG 0.55–0.45 (55%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Richards – Gaborik – Callahan2:04
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Avery – Dubinsky – Prust5:15
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh18:15
xG 1.35–0.77 (64%)attempts 22–21goals 1–0
- Woywitka – Eminger11:09
xG 0.38–0.27 (59%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Sauer – Del Zotto13:43
xG 0.29–0.43 (40%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).