Sat, Nov 26, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
Edmonton Oilers 2, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 114 | 19 | 010 | 233 |
| COL | 111 | 07 | 411 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:59EDMLadislav SmidAssists: Sam Gagner, Ryan Jones · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 4:35COLJay McClementAssists: Chuck Kobasew, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–1
- P2 2:24EDMRyan JonesAssists: Eric Belanger, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–1
- P3 6:06COLShane O'BrienPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Milan Hejduk · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 8:03COLStefan ElliottGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 16:19COLJan HejdaAssists: Chuck Kobasew, David Jones · Slap, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 18:07COLPaul StastnyENAssists: Milan Hejduk · Wrist, 0.64 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:40COLKyle Quincey: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:55COLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:37EDMRyan Jones: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:11COLMatt Duchene: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:12EDMRyan Whitney: Holding2 min
- P3 4:46EDMJeff Petry: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Belanger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestBelanger – Jones – Gagner8:37
xG 0.67–0.24 (74%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Horcoff – Hemsky – Hall4:12
xG 0.32–0.06 (85%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Hordichuk – Lander – Paajarvi3:08
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Hemsky – Lander3:38
xG 0.11–0.09 (54%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Smid14:56
xG 0.70–0.13 (84%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Whitney – Petry12:42
xG 0.41–0.17 (70%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Peckham – Teubert10:40
xG 0.49–0.69 (42%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – O'Reilly – Landeskog14:21
xG 0.44–0.37 (54%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Kobasew – McClement – Jones2:35
xG 0.05–0.05 (54%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Jones – McLeod – Galiardi3:33
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Kobasew – McClement – Porter6:09
xG 0.11–0.35 (24%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Wilson – Elliott14:48
xG 0.26–0.41 (39%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- O'Byrne – Hejda12:39
xG 0.42–0.72 (37%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Quincey – O'Brien15:37
xG 0.15–0.64 (19%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).