Sat, Nov 26, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Vancouver Canucks 3, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 111 | 212 | 04 | 327 |
| SJS | 110 | 019 | 116 | 245 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:13VANManny MalhotraAssists: Jannik Hansen, Keith Ballard · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 16:03SJSAndrew MurrayAssists: Andrew Desjardins, Jim Vandermeer · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 10:17VANHenrik SedinPPAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 11:07VANAndrew AlbertsGWGAssists: Ryan Kesler, Chris Higgins · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 18:45SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski · Snap, 0.17 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:10SJSBrad Winchester: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:10VANAaron Volpatti: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:02VANMaxim Lapierre: Boarding2 min
- P2 8:57SJSJoe Thornton: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:42VANSami Salo: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:07VANHenrik Sedin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Kesler – Booth13:47
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Malhotra – Hansen – Hodgson9:31
xG 0.25–0.08 (75%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Lapierre – Weise – Volpatti4:39
xG 0.08–0.21 (29%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows12:13
xG 0.23–1.08 (18%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Edler11:48
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Salo – Alberts3:54
xG 0.07–0.07 (50%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Alberts – Ballard12:00
xG 0.20–0.24 (45%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Couture14:21
xG 1.27–0.25 (84%)attempts 28–9goals 0–0
- Marleau – Clowe – Mitchell11:11
xG 0.24–0.21 (54%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Winchester – Murray – Desjardins3:40
xG 0.10–0.07 (60%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Handzus – Mitchell – McGinn2:39
xG 0.02–0.05 (31%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Vlasic17:30
xG 1.33–0.19 (88%)attempts 28–11goals 1–0
- Boyle – Vlasic2:57
xG 0.22–0.11 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Boyle – Demers2:43
xG 0.11–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).