Sun, Nov 27, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
St. Louis Blues 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 07 | 110 | 112 | 229 |
| CBJ | 07 | 19 | 08 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:06CBJDerek DorsettAssists: Samuel Pahlsson, Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 19:52STLKris RussellAssists: Alexander Steen, Kevin Shattenkirk · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 7:49STLDavid BackesPPGWGAssists: T.J. Oshie, Jason Arnott · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 9:51STLIan Cole: Interference2 min
- P2 1:01STLMatt D'Agostini: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:32CBJFedor Tyutin: Holding2 min
- P2 9:40STLAlexander Steen: Holding2 min
- P2 18:06CBJJeff Carter: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:51STLMatt D'Agostini: Interference2 min
- P3 4:21STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:21CBJCody Bass: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 6:31CBJFedor Tyutin: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:50STLIan Cole: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:54CBJFedor Tyutin: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:16CBJVinny Prospal: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestArnott – Langenbrunner – Porter7:27
xG 0.25–0.05 (85%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Steen – Stewart – Berglund2:56
xG 0.21–0.08 (72%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Backes – Oshie – D'Agostini2:26
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- D'Agostini – Stewart – Berglund7:23
xG 0.13–0.08 (61%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Pietrangelo13:14
xG 0.68–0.12 (85%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Jackman – Polak15:04
xG 0.52–0.39 (57%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Russell – Shattenkirk10:33
xG 0.10–0.13 (43%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Letestu – Johansen8:35
xG 0.19–0.00 (99%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Pahlsson – Vermette – Dorsett10:12
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Bass – Boll5:08
xG 0.09–0.06 (62%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Prospal – Nash – Carter13:22
xG 0.25–0.64 (28%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClitsome – Moore9:13
xG 0.15–0.07 (67%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Methot – Nikitin2:00
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Nikitin12:54
xG 0.32–0.34 (48%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).