Sun, Nov 27, 2011·Honda Center, Anaheim
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 210 | 112 | 26 | 528 |
| ANA | 110 | 07 | 111 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:51ANAFrancois BeaucheminPPAssists: Teemu Selanne, Luca Sbisa · Slap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 14:10TORTyler BozakPPAssists: John-Michael Liles, Joffrey Lupul · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P1 14:29TORClarke MacArthurAssists: Tim Connolly · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 2:36TORJoey CrabbGWGAssists: Luke Schenn, Joe Colborne · Tip-in, 0.19 xG3–1
- P3 0:47TORTyler BozakAssists: Phil Kessel, Joffrey Lupul · Backhand, 0.24 xG4–1
- P3 5:38ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Cam Fowler · Snap, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 19:48TORLuke SchennENAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, John-Michael Liles · Snap, 0.55 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:18ANAAndrew Cogliano: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:20TORClarke MacArthur: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:57ANANate Guenin: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:52ANACam Fowler: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:36ANASaku Koivu: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:39TORDion Phaneuf: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Connolly won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kessel – Bozak12:35
xG 0.83–0.54 (61%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Crabb – Frattin – Colborne10:47
xG 0.29–0.19 (60%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Connolly – MacArthur – Kulemin9:20
xG 0.19–0.12 (61%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Dupuis – Rosehill – Grabovski7:31
xG 0.15–0.28 (35%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Aulie14:16
xG 0.75–0.35 (68%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Schenn – Gardiner18:11
xG 0.66–0.53 (56%)attempts 15–15goals 2–0
- Liles – Franson11:33
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGordon – Beleskey – McMillan7:39
xG 0.38–0.18 (68%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Beleskey3:19
xG 0.12–0.04 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Ryan3:28
xG 0.07–0.00 (95%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Cogliano8:14
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Sbisa5:09
xG 0.25–0.10 (71%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Lydman – Brookbank7:56
xG 0.27–0.13 (68%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Guenin – Sbisa5:35
xG 0.12–0.02 (83%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).