Mon, Nov 28, 2011·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
San Jose Sharks 0, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 011 | 09 | 013 | 033 |
| LAK | 116 | 19 | 08 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:37LAKEthan MoreauGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 4:16LAKMike RichardsAssists: Simon Gagne, Willie Mitchell · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 16:06SJSFrazer McLaren: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 4:01LAKJarret Stoll: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 4:01SJSJoe Thornton: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:36LAKJustin Williams: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:23SJSJoe Thornton: Holding2 min
- P2 15:24LAKJarret Stoll: Holding2 min
- P2 17:52LAKMatt Greene: Interference2 min
- P3 4:26SJSJim Vandermeer: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:45LAKTrent Hunter: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:14LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00SJSRyane Clowe: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00SJSRyane Clowe: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00LAKJack Johnson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Marleau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Havlat – Clowe6:06
xG 0.78–0.25 (76%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Couture8:32
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Winchester – Desjardins – McLaren3:24
xG 0.05–0.03 (62%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Murray – Mitchell – McGinn6:03
xG 0.05–0.09 (36%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Murray12:17
xG 0.83–0.42 (66%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
- Burns – Vlasic11:33
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Vandermeer – Braun7:38
xG 0.16–0.14 (54%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestHunter – Brown – Kopitar12:50
xG 0.63–0.19 (77%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Gagne – Stoll – Richards7:12
xG 0.24–0.05 (82%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Moreau – Fraser – Westgarth4:57
xG 0.09–0.02 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Williams – Loktionov – Clifford6:06
xG 0.07–0.96 (7%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Doughty14:16
xG 0.67–0.47 (59%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Greene – Johnson8:09
xG 0.29–0.12 (71%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Greene – Voynov2:00
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).