Tue, Nov 29, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 114 | 110 | 13 | 327 |
| NYR | 09 | 415 | 06 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:56PITJames NealPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Paul Martin · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 8:01NYRRyan CallahanPPAssists: Marian Gaborik, Brad Richards · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 14:09NYRJohn MitchellAssists: Carl Hagelin, Brian Boyle · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 15:39NYRBrad RichardsAssists: Ruslan Fedotenko, Ryan Callahan · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 18:26NYRMarian GaborikPPGWGAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–4
- P2 19:53PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: James Neal, Steve Sullivan · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–4
- P3 3:39PITPascal DupuisAssists: Sidney Crosby, Deryk Engelland · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (18)
- P1 0:16PITTyler Kennedy: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:16NYRSean Avery: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:21NYRSean Avery: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:21PITTyler Kennedy: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:41NYRMarian Gaborik: Interference2 min
- P1 12:59NYRBrandon Prust: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:36NYRSteve Eminger: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:36PITJoe Vitale: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:36NYRHenrik Lundqvist: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:38NYRBrad Richards: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:38PITBrooks Orpik: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:10PITPascal Dupuis: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:48PITJames Neal: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:34NYRRyan McDonagh: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 12:41PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:19PITDeryk Engelland: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:49PITBrooks Orpik: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:06PITChris Kunitz: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Cooke – Kennedy – Staal4:03
xG 0.11–0.14 (45%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Cooke – Malkin – Staal2:06
xG 0.08–0.18 (32%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Sullivan – Malkin – Neal6:37
xG 0.58–0.81 (42%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby7:31
xG 0.31–0.64 (33%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Engelland4:54
xG 0.68–0.10 (87%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Picard – Niskanen2:03
xG 0.11–0.10 (53%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Orpik – Niskanen9:18
xG 0.06–0.20 (23%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Mitchell – Hagelin9:34
xG 1.29–0.13 (91%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Anisimov – Stepan6:53
xG 0.69–0.23 (75%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Avery – Dubinsky – Prust3:47
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Richards – Fedotenko – Gaborik2:22
xG 0.04–0.38 (9%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSauer – Del Zotto15:14
xG 1.18–0.57 (68%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Woywitka – Eminger8:38
xG 0.26–0.44 (37%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh12:18
xG 0.82–1.12 (42%)attempts 10–19goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).