Tue, Nov 29, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
Florida Panthers 3, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 02 | 112 | 27 | 321 |
| CAR | 09 | 111 | 07 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:45FLATomas FleischmannPPAssists: Brian Campbell, Stephen Weiss · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 11:49CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Eric Staal, Joni Pitkanen · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–1
- P3 16:41FLAShawn MatthiasGWGAssists: Tomas Kopecky · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 19:11FLAShawn MatthiasENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:14FLAMike Santorelli: Holding2 min
- P2 3:41FLATomas Fleischmann: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:13FLAShawn Matthias: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:32CARPatrick Dwyer: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:51FLAEd Jovanovski: Interference2 min
- P3 7:51CARJoni Pitkanen: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P3 8:56CARBryan Allen: Interference2 min
- P3 10:04FLAErik Gudbranson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSturm – Kopecky – Santorelli9:07
xG 0.41–0.28 (60%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Cullen – Kennedy – Dadonov5:27
xG 0.03–0.05 (33%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg12:31
xG 0.24–0.72 (25%)attempts 5–20goals 0–0
- Bergenheim – Skille – Matthias7:14
xG 0.18–0.85 (18%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Jovanovski – Weaver5:36
xG 0.30–0.59 (34%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Campbell – Garrison17:25
xG 0.32–0.67 (32%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- Weaver – Kulikov10:37
xG 0.19–0.56 (26%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDwyer – Tlusty – Sutter10:22
xG 0.97–0.10 (91%)attempts 18–2goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Staal – Skinner11:58
xG 1.05–0.19 (85%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
- Ponikarovsky – Jokinen – LaRose9:15
xG 0.59–0.17 (78%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Brent – Stewart – Nodl5:49
xG 0.00–0.67 (0%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPitkanen – Faulk14:56
xG 1.27–0.43 (75%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Allen – Gleason17:00
xG 0.85–0.14 (86%)attempts 27–5goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Joslin11:10
xG 0.62–0.49 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).