Tue, Nov 29, 2011·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 011 | 015 | 122 | 148 |
| VAN | 211 | 011 | 212 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:19VANDaniel SedinAssists: Alexander Edler, Sami Salo · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 17:42VANDavid BoothGWGAssists: Chris Higgins, Dan Hamhuis · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 4:27CBJSamuel PahlssonSHAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 5:55VANRyan KeslerAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Daniel Sedin · Slap, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 19:17VANAlexandre BurrowsENAssists: Ryan Kesler, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.68 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:53CBJJames Wisniewski: Interference2 min
- P2 5:33VANAndrew Alberts: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:53VANJannik Hansen: Interference2 min
- P3 3:51CBJNikita Nikitin: Holding2 min
- P3 9:58VANDaniel Sedin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Letestu won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestProspal – Nash – Carter14:09
xG 0.63–0.43 (59%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Umberger – Letestu – Johansen11:09
xG 0.74–0.68 (52%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- MacKenzie – Boll – Brassard6:27
xG 0.11–0.12 (46%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Pahlsson – Vermette – Dorsett8:53
xG 0.18–0.69 (20%)attempts 6–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Methot16:05
xG 0.89–0.44 (67%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Nikitin15:27
xG 0.70–0.62 (53%)attempts 16–17goals 0–2
- Clitsome – Moore10:25
xG 0.32–0.35 (48%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Kesler – Booth10:04
xG 0.55–0.16 (78%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Lapierre – Weise – Volpatti8:44
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows11:25
xG 0.43–0.81 (35%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Malhotra – Hansen – Hodgson8:35
xG 0.32–0.72 (31%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlberts – Ballard14:12
xG 0.62–0.38 (62%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Salo – Edler11:23
xG 0.68–0.52 (57%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Bieksa14:39
xG 0.51–0.38 (57%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).