Wed, Nov 30, 2011·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Minnesota Wild 3, Edmonton Oilers 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 07 | 210 | 09 | 03 | 4 | 329 |
| EDM | 19 | 18 | 012 | 01 | 3 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:58EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Andy Sutton, Jordan Eberle · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 5:10EDMJordan EberlePPAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 11:31MINDevin SetoguchiAssists: Mikko Koivu, Dany Heatley · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 14:51MINKyle BrodziakPPAssists: Nick Johnson, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. EDM Jordan Eberle scored
- 2. MIN Pierre-Marc Bouchard scored
- 3. EDM Ales Hemsky stopped
- 4. MIN Mikko Koivu scored
- 5. EDM Sam Gagner scored
- 6. MIN Matt Cullen stopped
- 7. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins stopped
- 8. MIN Devin Setoguchi stopped
- 9. EDM Shawn Horcoff scored
- 10. MIN Dany Heatley scored
- 11. EDM Ryan Smyth stopped
- 12. MIN Kyle Brodziak scored
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:12EDMDarcy Hordichuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:12MINBrad Staubitz: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:52MINMike Lundin: Holding2 min
- P1 10:42MINKyle Brodziak: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:30EDMAles Hemsky: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 16:18EDMRyan Jones: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 17:02EDMLadislav Smid: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:31MINGreg Zanon: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:56EDMAndy Sutton: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 14:55MINNick Johnson: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:44EDMTheo Peckham: Roughing2 min
- OT 3:07EDMRyan Smyth: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Horcoff
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Bouchard – Johnson6:23
xG 0.54–0.01 (99%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Heatley – Koivu – Clutterbuck3:54
xG 0.09–0.03 (76%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Cullen – Bouchard – Setoguchi4:18
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Brodziak – Johnson – Powe5:06
xG 0.17–0.29 (38%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Spurgeon12:39
xG 0.56–0.44 (56%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Schultz – Lundin14:03
xG 0.39–0.45 (46%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
- Schultz – Zanon2:13
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Hemsky – Gagner12:43
xG 0.81–0.35 (70%)attempts 16–4goals 0–1
- Belanger – Jones – Paajarvi10:38
xG 0.43–0.27 (61%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Smyth – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins12:35
xG 0.46–0.73 (39%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Smid14:12
xG 0.92–0.27 (77%)attempts 19–3goals 0–1
- Whitney – Petry12:45
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Sutton – Peckham11:11
xG 0.44–0.68 (39%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).