Thu, Dec 1, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
New York Rangers 5, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 111 | 312 | 14 | 527 |
| CAR | 29 | 114 | 08 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:35CARJiri TlustyAssists: Brandon Sutter · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 1:42NYRRyan CallahanPPAssists: Brad Richards, Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P1 19:51CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Eric Staal · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 8:54NYRRyan McDonaghAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 11:50NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Artem Anisimov, Jeff Woywitka · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 13:47NYRSean AveryGWGAssists: Marian Gaborik, Derek Stepan · Snap, 0.07 xG4–2
- P2 17:47CARDerek JoslinAssists: Eric Staal, Tuomo Ruutu · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 5:42NYRMichael SauerAssists: Brian Boyle, Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:00CARJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:50NYRBrandon Prust: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:27CARAndreas Nodl: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:42CARJoni Pitkanen: Holding2 min
- P3 10:34NYRBrian Boyle: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:34CARAnthony Stewart: Instigator2 min
- P3 10:34CARAnthony Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:34CARAnthony Stewart: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestAvery – Dubinsky – Prust6:05
xG 0.34–0.02 (94%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Boyle – Mitchell – Hagelin8:04
xG 0.28–0.14 (66%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Anisimov – Stepan9:37
xG 0.20–0.12 (63%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
- Richards – Fedotenko – Callahan12:36
xG 0.15–0.29 (33%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWoywitka – Eminger9:56
xG 0.36–0.09 (79%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh19:42
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 19–21goals 1–2
- Sauer – Del Zotto16:05
xG 0.25–0.83 (23%)attempts 10–17goals 2–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDwyer – Tlusty – Sutter9:35
xG 0.23–0.10 (70%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Staal – Skinner14:54
xG 0.41–0.49 (45%)attempts 20–13goals 1–1
- Ponikarovsky – Jokinen – LaRose8:39
xG 0.12–0.21 (35%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Brent – Stewart – Nodl5:28
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Allen10:03
xG 0.56–0.33 (63%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
- Gleason – Faulk14:30
xG 0.23–0.11 (68%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Kaberle – Pitkanen4:48
xG 0.09–0.05 (62%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).