Thu, Dec 1, 2011·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Nashville Predators 6, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 35 | 29 | 16 | 620 |
| VAN | 17 | 421 | 09 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:44NSHDavid LegwandPPAssists: Colin Wilson, Craig Smith · Slap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 8:16NSHMike FisherAssists: Martin Erat, Shea Weber · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 9:58VANCody HodgsonPPAssists: Chris Higgins, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P1 19:50NSHShea WeberPPAssists: Colin Wilson, Craig Smith · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 3:10VANDaniel SedinPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 3:58VANAaron VolpattiAssists: Maxim Lapierre, Andrew Alberts · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- P2 8:16VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–4
- P2 10:29VANJannik HansenAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Kevin Bieksa · Slap, 0.02 xG3–5
- P2 16:09NSHJordin TootooAssists: Matt Halischuk, Nick Spaling · Slap, 0.15 xG4–5
- P2 17:30NSHColin WilsonPPAssists: David Legwand, Craig Smith · Backhand, 0.12 xG5–5
- P3 18:44NSHMike FisherGWGAssists: Martin Erat, Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.10 xG6–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:34NSHCraig Smith: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:42VANDan Hamhuis: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 8:41NSHShea Weber: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:45NSHMartin Erat: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:49VANHenrik Sedin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:47NSHJerred Smithson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:36VANRyan Kesler: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Wilson11:06
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Smithson – Wilson5:01
xG 0.20–0.16 (54%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Smith13:28
xG 0.38–1.58 (19%)attempts 6–22goals 2–0
- Tootoo – Halischuk – Spaling11:59
xG 0.32–1.56 (17%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Suter – Weber18:41
xG 0.52–0.59 (47%)attempts 12–16goals 2–0
- Blum – Josi9:05
xG 0.27–0.58 (31%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Klein – Hillen18:23
xG 0.21–2.68 (7%)attempts 7–35goals 0–2
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows14:55
xG 2.14–0.08 (96%)attempts 26–5goals 1–1
- Higgins – Kesler – Booth12:08
xG 1.26–0.20 (87%)attempts 18–1goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Hansen – Hodgson6:50
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1
- Lapierre – Weise – Volpatti6:53
xG 0.16–0.26 (38%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRome – Edler16:58
xG 2.01–0.16 (92%)attempts 31–5goals 1–1
- Hamhuis – Bieksa17:22
xG 1.46–0.57 (72%)attempts 23–12goals 1–1
- Alberts – Ballard12:40
xG 0.71–0.33 (68%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).