Thu, Dec 1, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Montréal Canadiens 3, San Jose Sharks 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 18 | 110 | 110 | 04 | 2 | 332 |
| SJS | 112 | 112 | 113 | 04 | 3 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:21MTLMichael CammalleriAssists: P.K. Subban, David Desharnais · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 14:02SJSJamie McGinnAssists: Michal Handzus, Jason Demers · Slap, 0.44 xG1–1
- P2 4:41MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: Erik Cole · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 6:18SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Ryane Clowe, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 8:46MTLErik ColeAssists: David Desharnais, Michael Cammalleri · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 18:34SJSRyane CloweAssists: Logan Couture, Martin Havlat · Wrist, 0.43 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. SJS Ryane Clowe stopped
- 2. MTL Michael Cammalleri stopped
- 3. SJS Martin Havlat scored
- 4. MTL Erik Cole stopped
- 5. SJS Logan Couture stopped
- 6. MTL Brian Gionta scored
- 7. SJS Michal Handzus scored
- 8. MTL David Desharnais scored
- 9. SJS Dan Boyle stopped
- 10. MTL Travis Moen stopped
- 11. SJS Joe Pavelski scored
- 12. MTL P.K. Subban stopped
Penalties (2)
- P1 14:38MTLRaphael Diaz: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:07SJSRyane Clowe: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Plekanec – Kostitsyn14:02
xG 0.94–0.73 (57%)attempts 10–21goals 0–0
- Cole – Cammalleri – Desharnais14:01
xG 0.53–0.45 (54%)attempts 13–17goals 3–0
- Moen – Eller – Leblanc10:44
xG 0.27–0.30 (47%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Darche – Nokelainen – Palushaj2:38
xG 0.06–0.13 (31%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Diaz10:43
xG 0.68–0.30 (69%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Emelin – Diaz13:15
xG 0.47–0.46 (50%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Emelin – Weber4:52
xG 0.11–0.11 (50%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Thornton – Marleau – Pavelski14:56
xG 0.63–0.59 (51%)attempts 20–16goals 0–3
- Handzus – Mitchell – McGinn10:20
xG 0.36–0.37 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Winchester – Murray – Desjardins8:05
xG 0.04–0.09 (33%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Havlat – Clowe – Couture17:09
xG 0.64–0.80 (44%)attempts 21–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Demers2:07
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Boyle – Murray17:23
xG 0.43–0.40 (52%)attempts 19–10goals 0–2
- Burns – Vlasic19:47
xG 1.11–1.17 (49%)attempts 26–19goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).