Fri, Dec 2, 2011·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
New Jersey Devils 2, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 29 | 012 | 010 | 231 |
| MIN | 36 | 06 | 14 | 416 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:54NJDZach PariseAssists: Andy Greene, Adam Henrique · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 3:14MINDany HeatleyAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Niklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 6:55MINKyle BrodziakUnassisted · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–2
- P1 8:17MINCasey WellmanGWGAssists: Matt Cullen, Pierre-Marc Bouchard · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–3
- P1 13:59NJDIlya KovalchukAssists: Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 16:24MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Nick Johnson, Marco Scandella · Snap, 0.10 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:44MINKyle Brodziak: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:21NJDDavid Clarkson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 5:48MINColton Gillies: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:30MINNick Schultz: Holding2 min
- P3 15:51NJDMattias Tedenby: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:12MINDevin Setoguchi: Interference2 min
- P3 19:10MINDany Heatley: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:51NJDDavid Clarkson: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestSykora – Elias – Zubrus10:00
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Boulton – Kovalchuk – Sestito2:41
xG 0.07–0.08 (48%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Boulton – Janssen – Sestito3:35
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Parise – Henrique12:29
xG 0.93–0.96 (49%)attempts 23–9goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Fayne16:33
xG 0.67–0.15 (81%)attempts 20–7goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Greene4:53
xG 0.25–0.13 (65%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Salvador – Larsson8:11
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBrodziak – Johnson – Powe13:08
xG 0.62–0.11 (85%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Cullen – Bouchard – Wellman9:47
xG 0.39–0.14 (74%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Staubitz – Almond – Gillies4:55
xG 0.02–0.06 (24%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Heatley – Koivu – Setoguchi13:31
xG 0.38–0.79 (33%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Spurgeon14:43
xG 0.81–0.61 (57%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Zanon – Stoner14:35
xG 0.41–0.26 (61%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Schultz – Lundin16:43
xG 0.23–0.42 (35%)attempts 5–21goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).