Fri, Dec 2, 2011·United Center, Chicago
New York Islanders 4, Chicago Blackhawks 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 213 | 02 | 223 | 03 | 0 | 441 |
| CHI | 114 | 215 | 17 | 00 | 1 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:07NYIKyle OkposoPPAssists: Travis Hamonic, Milan Jurcina · Snap, 0.45 xG1–0
- P1 10:27CHIAndrew BrunetteAssists: Sean O'Donnell, Daniel Carcillo · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 14:27NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: PA Parenteau, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 6:41CHIBen SmithAssists: Patrick Kane, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–2
- P2 18:41CHIJonathan ToewsSHAssists: Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 0:46NYIPA ParenteauPPAssists: Matt Moulson, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 5:08CHIPatrick SharpPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 8:55NYINino NiederreiterAssists: Matt Martin, Marty Reasoner · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
- 2. CHI Jonathan Toews scored
- 3. NYI Nino Niederreiter stopped
- 4. CHI Marian Hossa stopped
- 5. NYI Matt Moulson stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:28CHIAndrew Brunette: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 5:23NYISteve Staios: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:43CHIViktor Stalberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:11NYIDylan Reese: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:27NYISteve Staios: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:52CHISteve Montador: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 4:11NYIMilan Jurcina: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:58CHIJonathan Toews: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestRolston – Bailey – Ullstrom8:30
xG 0.20–0.12 (61%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner8:56
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares12:52
xG 0.73–0.80 (48%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
- Reasoner – Martin – Niederreiter6:48
xG 0.19–0.51 (27%)attempts 6–7goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestMottau – Reese10:40
xG 0.73–0.12 (86%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Staios – Jurcina12:59
xG 0.37–0.87 (30%)attempts 14–18goals 0–2
- Streit – Hamonic9:45
xG 0.34–1.60 (17%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Sharp – Kruger10:08
xG 0.48–0.24 (66%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Mayers – Brunette – Carcillo5:03
xG 0.11–0.03 (76%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Stalberg – Toews – Kane10:30
xG 0.69–0.69 (50%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Bolland – Frolik – Smith6:45
xG 0.06–0.09 (40%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook16:04
xG 1.78–0.73 (71%)attempts 19–16goals 0–2
- O'Donnell – Montador9:44
xG 0.58–0.22 (73%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Keith – Leddy2:28
xG 0.11–0.10 (51%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).