Sat, Dec 3, 2011·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Montréal Canadiens 2, Los Angeles Kings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 15 | 113 | 09 | 227 |
| LAK | 014 | 17 | 06 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:39MTLTomas PlekanecPPAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn, Yannick Weber · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 10:48MTLAndrei KostitsynGWGAssists: Lars Eller, Louis Leblanc · Slap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 13:46LAKDustin PennerPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Trent Hunter · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:27MTLJosh Gorges: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:48MTLLars Eller: Boarding2 min
- P1 13:37MTLAlexei Emelin: Interference2 min
- P1 17:10LAKDustin Brown: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:25LAKDavis Drewiske: Kneeing2 min
- P2 11:57MTLErik Cole: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 18:23MTLErik Cole: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:51LAKJarret Stoll: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 10:37LAKDustin Penner: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 16:23MTLMichael Cammalleri: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:35LAKJustin Williams: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestCole – Cammalleri – Desharnais11:57
xG 0.48–0.14 (77%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Kostitsyn – Eller – Leblanc6:55
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Gionta – Moen – Plekanec5:42
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGill – St-Denis8:33
xG 0.52–0.06 (89%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Emelin – Diaz14:32
xG 0.43–0.32 (57%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Gorges – Subban11:04
xG 0.09–0.09 (49%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Stoll – Penner9:12
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Gagne – Brown – Kopitar11:00
xG 0.27–0.33 (45%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Hunter – Richardson – Loktionov7:37
xG 0.12–0.21 (37%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Moreau – Fraser – Clifford5:29
xG 0.03–0.13 (16%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Voynov13:28
xG 0.47–0.52 (48%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Greene – Drewiske8:17
xG 0.04–0.10 (28%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Scuderi – Doughty13:43
xG 0.13–0.41 (24%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).