Sat, Dec 3, 2011·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
New Jersey Devils 2, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 16 | 112 | 07 | 225 |
| WPG | 16 | 17 | 27 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:42WPGEvander KaneAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Bryan Little · Deflected, 0.00 xG0–1
- P1 5:53NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Zach Parise, Ilya Kovalchuk · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 17:17NJDPatrik EliasPPAssists: Adam Larsson · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 18:24WPGAlexander BurmistrovSHAssists: Bryan Little · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 13:13WPGMark StuartGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Zach Bogosian · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 19:28WPGEvander KaneENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.57 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 14:46NJDDainius Zubrus: Holding2 min
- P1 18:43WPGJim Slater: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:22WPGChris Thorburn: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:24NJDDavid Clarkson: Interference2 min
- P2 16:24WPGJason Jaffray: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:38WPGAndrew Ladd: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:10NJDTim Sestito: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:10WPGJason Jaffray: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:45WPGJohnny Oduya: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:45NJDPetr Sykora: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Elias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Parise – Henrique11:13
xG 0.57–0.24 (70%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Boulton – Clarkson – Carter2:26
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Boulton – Kovalchuk – Sestito3:08
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Sykora – Elias – Zubrus11:18
xG 0.39–0.52 (43%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Fayne14:07
xG 1.25–0.15 (89%)attempts 24–6goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Greene12:55
xG 0.32–0.13 (71%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- Salvador – Larsson14:11
xG 0.22–0.56 (29%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWellwood – Ladd – Burmistrov11:07
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Jaffray – Stapleton – Klingberg3:14
xG 0.06–0.01 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Glass8:32
xG 0.50–0.59 (46%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Little – Kane11:20
xG 0.13–0.64 (17%)attempts 3–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Flood – Kulda10:56
xG 0.02–0.09 (21%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Oduya – Byfuglien14:33
xG 0.69–0.88 (44%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Oduya – Flood2:34
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).