Sat, Dec 3, 2011·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Phoenix Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 417 | 06 | 07 | 430 |
| PHX | 013 | 113 | 112 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:23PHIMatt ReadPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 6:01PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Daniel Brière, Matt Read · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–0
- P1 16:13PHIClaude GirouxGWGAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Jaromir Jagr · Slap, 0.07 xG3–0
- P1 18:29PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: Daniel Brière, Matt Read · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–0
- P2 7:15PHXRay WhitneyAssists: Radim Vrbata, Derek Morris · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 19:19PHXMikkel BoedkerAssists: Keith Yandle, Raffi Torres · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 3:18PHXRaffi Torres: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- P1 12:18PHIWayne Simmonds: Interference2 min
- P1 17:18PHXBoyd Gordon: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:40PHIDaniel Brière: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:24PHXAdrian Aucoin: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:24PHIWayne Simmonds: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:24PHIKimmo Timonen: Holding2 min
- P3 2:45PHXLauri Korpikoski: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:01PHXKyle Turris: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:01PHIHarry Zolnierczyk: Interference2 min
- P3 13:10PHIKimmo Timonen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:04PHIDaniel Brière: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:04PHXJason LaBarbera: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:47PHXRaffi Torres: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:47PHIMax Talbot: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Langkow won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Simmonds – Read7:43
xG 0.53–0.32 (63%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
- Talbot – Voracek – Schenn8:35
xG 0.58–0.38 (61%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Rinaldo – Zolnierczyk – Couturier5:35
xG 0.24–0.30 (45%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Jagr – Hartnell – Giroux9:27
xG 0.40–0.52 (43%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Meszaros5:02
xG 0.31–0.08 (80%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Coburn – Marshall2:14
xG 0.26–0.06 (81%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Carle – Bourdon10:18
xG 0.54–0.39 (58%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Gordon – Korpikoski3:38
xG 0.37–0.01 (97%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Langkow – Doan – Torres5:24
xG 0.36–0.15 (70%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal7:23
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 12–5goals 1–1
- Korpikoski – Turris – Boedker4:31
xG 0.19–0.21 (47%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlesla – Schlemko3:54
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Ekman-Larsson14:03
xG 0.99–0.78 (56%)attempts 33–9goals 1–1
- Klesla – Yandle10:52
xG 0.28–0.46 (37%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).