Sat, Dec 3, 2011·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Calgary Flames 5, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 214 | 013 | 35 | 532 |
| EDM | 28 | 010 | 111 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:19EDMLennart PetrellAssists: Darcy Hordichuk, Ryan O'Marra · Deflected, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 3:00EDMSam GagnerAssists: Ales Hemsky, Shawn Horcoff · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 3:49CGYOlli JokinenPPAssists: Jarome Iginla, Rene Bourque · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P1 6:45CGYRene BourqueAssists: Roman Horak, Blake Comeau · Backhand, 0.31 xG2–2
- P3 5:27EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ladislav Smid · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–3
- P3 6:11CGYDerek SmithAssists: Jarome Iginla · Snap, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 10:25CGYMikael BacklundPPGWGAssists: Jarome Iginla, Derek Smith · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–3
- P3 19:28CGYOlli JokinenENUnassisted · Snap, 0.55 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:32EDMAndy Sutton: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:50CGYLee Stempniak: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:29CGYOlli Jokinen: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:23CGYBlake Comeau: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 7:42CGYScott Hannan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:38CGYRene Bourque: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:57EDMAndy Sutton: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:37EDMRyan Smyth: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:14CGYOlli Jokinen: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKostopoulos – Jackman – Stajan5:23
xG 0.56–0.43 (57%)attempts 5–5goals 0–2
- Stempniak – Comeau – Backlund8:57
xG 0.14–0.18 (45%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Glencross11:35
xG 0.21–0.40 (35%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
- Tanguay – Bourque – Horak7:10
xG 0.16–0.48 (25%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Brodie11:05
xG 0.52–0.34 (61%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Hannan – Smith2:11
xG 0.07–0.15 (32%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
- Piskula – Smith7:57
xG 0.10–0.21 (32%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Hemsky – Gagner11:12
xG 0.54–0.18 (75%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Hordichuk – Petrell – O'Marra4:11
xG 0.11–0.08 (58%)attempts 1–3goals 1–1
- Belanger – Jones – Paajarvi6:39
xG 0.09–0.47 (16%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Smyth – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins10:28
xG 0.66–1.12 (37%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSutton – Peckham11:08
xG 0.56–0.14 (80%)attempts 18–7goals 1–1
- Gilbert – Smid11:23
xG 0.50–0.74 (40%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Whitney – Petry13:05
xG 0.33–1.11 (23%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).