Sun, Dec 4, 2011·Honda Center, Anaheim
Minnesota Wild 5, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 117 | 213 | 26 | 536 |
| ANA | 29 | 04 | 114 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:57ANARyan GetzlafPPAssists: Corey Perry, Teemu Selanne · Slap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 9:25ANASaku KoivuAssists: Teemu Selanne, Matt Beleskey · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 19:56MINDany HeatleyPPAssists: Matt Cullen, Mikko Koivu · Slap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 15:18MINCasey WellmanAssists: Matt Cullen, Pierre-Marc Bouchard · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 15:50MINPierre-Marc BouchardAssists: Matt Cullen, Casey Wellman · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 10:45ANACam FowlerUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 14:29MINNick JohnsonGWGAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Kyle Brodziak · Tip-in, 0.23 xG4–3
- P3 19:49MINCal ClutterbuckENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.73 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:42MINNick Schultz: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:28MINBrad Staubitz: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:28ANAJean-Francois Jacques: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:30ANABobby Ryan: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:03ANAToni Lydman: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:05MINClayton Stoner: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:10ANALuca Sbisa: Interference2 min
- P3 18:02MINMikko Koivu: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Bouchard – Wellman12:23
xG 0.90–0.30 (75%)attempts 12–12goals 2–1
- Brodziak – Johnson – Clutterbuck9:04
xG 0.61–0.18 (78%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Staubitz – Powe – Almond5:28
xG 0.02–0.23 (8%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Heatley – Koivu – Setoguchi14:29
xG 0.56–0.85 (40%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Spurgeon17:47
xG 0.99–0.48 (68%)attempts 20–16goals 1–1
- Schultz – Lundin19:05
xG 1.27–1.00 (56%)attempts 21–24goals 0–0
- Zanon – Stoner12:25
xG 0.62–0.42 (60%)attempts 9–15goals 2–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Koivu – Ryan5:11
xG 0.82–0.26 (76%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Beleskey5:36
xG 0.21–0.00 (98%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Hagman – Macenauer – Smith-Pelly2:00
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Beleskey9:22
xG 0.20–0.25 (45%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrookbank – Sbisa5:05
xG 0.78–0.02 (98%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Brookbank2:55
xG 0.08–0.09 (49%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Lydman – Foster2:03
xG 0.03–0.04 (41%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).