Mon, Dec 5, 2011·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Boston Bruins 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 011 | 28 | 18 | 327 |
| PIT | 06 | 017 | 123 | 146 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:57BOSGregory CampbellAssists: Daniel Paille, Shawn Thornton · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 7:18BOSBenoit PouliotGWGAssists: Rich Peverley · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 1:07BOSTyler SeguinPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Rich Peverley · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–0
- P3 10:54PITMatt CookeAssists: Joe Vitale · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 5:27PITPascal Dupuis: Holding2 min
- P1 8:25PITSimon Despres: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:19BOSGregory Campbell: Interference2 min
- P2 3:19BOSBrad Marchand: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:19PITMatt Niskanen: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:19BOSBrad Marchand: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:09BOSZdeno Chara: Interference2 min
- P2 8:04PITSimon Despres: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:06BOSRich Peverley: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:06BOSBenoit Pouliot: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 0:00PITJordan Staal: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 4:39PITChris Kunitz: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:08BOSGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:08PITJoe Vitale: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Krejci – Lucic10:50
xG 0.48–0.22 (69%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Kelly – Peverley – Pouliot10:54
xG 1.08–0.84 (56%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille3:23
xG 0.15–0.06 (71%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Seguin8:25
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – McQuaid9:16
xG 0.47–0.10 (83%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Chara – McQuaid5:18
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Chara – Boychuk8:47
xG 0.70–0.57 (55%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Neal2:28
xG 0.38–0.07 (85%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Cooke – Dupuis – Staal2:14
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Staal7:03
xG 0.13–0.09 (60%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Crosby2:30
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Niskanen6:50
xG 1.34–0.55 (71%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Picard – Despres5:17
xG 0.08–0.01 (89%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Orpik – Martin2:55
xG 0.17–0.11 (59%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).