Mon, Dec 5, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Washington Capitals 4, Florida Panthers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 19 | 110 | 213 | 432 |
| FLA | 311 | 213 | 06 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:50FLAStephen WeissPPAssists: Brian Campbell, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 7:03FLAMike SantorelliAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Mike Weaver · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 16:31FLADmitry KulikovPPAssists: Brian Campbell, Stephen Weiss · Slap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P1 17:11WSHMike KnubleAssists: Marcus Johansson, Dmitry Orlov · Slap, 0.01 xG1–3
- P2 3:41FLASean BergenheimPPAssists: Shawn Matthias, Jason Garrison · Backhand, 0.25 xG1–4
- P2 12:11FLAStephen WeissGWGAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–5
- P2 19:40WSHCody EakinAssists: Mathieu Perreault, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–5
- P3 12:09WSHBrooks LaichAssists: Joel Ward, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–5
- P3 18:16WSHJason ChimeraAssists: John Carlson, Jeff Halpern · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:58FLAKris Versteeg: Cross checking2 min
- P1 5:47WSHMathieu Perreault: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:22WSHJohn Erskine: Instigator2 min
- P1 10:22WSHJohn Erskine: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:22WSHJohn Erskine: Misconduct10 min
- P1 10:22FLABracken Kearns: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:16WSHTroy Brouwer: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:55WSHKarl Alzner: Boarding2 min
- P2 2:12WSHDmitry Orlov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:29FLAMike Weaver: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:36WSHNicklas Backstrom: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthias won the faceoff against Laich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Ward – Laich6:51
xG 0.19–0.11 (62%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Halpern – Hendricks – Perreault2:48
xG 0.07–0.02 (79%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Brouwer – Backstrom9:44
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 8–6goals 0–2
- Knuble – Johansson – Eakin6:22
xG 0.08–0.19 (28%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson13:28
xG 0.69–0.23 (75%)attempts 21–8goals 3–1
- Carlson – Orlov3:05
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Wideman – Orlov7:00
xG 0.15–0.11 (57%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSturm – Santorelli – Skille10:00
xG 0.22–0.16 (59%)attempts 6–9goals 1–2
- Kennedy – Kearns – Dadonov7:19
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg12:32
xG 0.21–0.43 (33%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
- Kopecky – Bergenheim – Matthias10:44
xG 0.07–0.47 (13%)attempts 4–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJovanovski – Gudbranson9:13
xG 0.20–0.10 (67%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Campbell – Garrison14:35
xG 0.17–0.22 (44%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Weaver – Kulikov16:28
xG 0.46–0.69 (40%)attempts 11–24goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).