Mon, Dec 5, 2011·United Center, Chicago
Phoenix Coyotes 4, Chicago Blackhawks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 215 | 16 | 05 | 01 | 2 | 427 |
| CHI | 011 | 314 | 010 | 00 | 0 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:35PHXRaffi TorresAssists: Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 18:13PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 1:09PHXKeith YandleAssists: David Schlemko · Slap, 0.02 xG3–0
- P2 2:40CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Patrick Kane, Daniel Carcillo · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 9:27CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Duncan Keith, Patrick Sharp · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–2
- P2 13:57CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Jonathan Toews, Viktor Stalberg · Snap, 0.22 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PHX Oliver Ekman-Larsson scored
- 2. CHI Jonathan Toews stopped
- 3. PHX Radim Vrbata scored
- 4. CHI Marian Hossa stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:38PHXAdrian Aucoin: Holding2 min
- P2 8:09PHXAdrian Aucoin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:05CHIJamal Mayers: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:05PHXKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:41PHXMartin Hanzal: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:46CHIDuncan Keith: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Kruger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestChipchura – Turris – Boedker7:43
xG 0.49–0.10 (82%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal14:36
xG 0.46–0.56 (45%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Langkow – Doan – Torres10:48
xG 0.26–0.47 (36%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Gordon – Korpikoski11:35
xG 0.17–0.62 (22%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Schlemko19:18
xG 0.82–0.56 (59%)attempts 24–12goals 2–1
- Morris – Summers6:58
xG 0.25–0.37 (40%)attempts 5–10goals 1–1
- Aucoin – Ekman-Larsson21:26
xG 0.46–1.20 (28%)attempts 13–22goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestStalberg – Toews – Kane8:33
xG 0.77–0.04 (95%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Kruger12:13
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Bolland – Frolik – Smith9:20
xG 0.45–0.22 (67%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Mayers – Brunette – Carcillo4:45
xG 0.07–0.03 (68%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Leddy16:38
xG 1.02–0.24 (81%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook21:06
xG 0.94–0.78 (55%)attempts 16–19goals 1–1
- Keith – Leddy2:22
xG 0.05–0.05 (50%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).