Tue, Dec 6, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 18 | 011 | 05 | 124 |
| NYI | 314 | 011 | 29 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:55TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Brett Clark, Steven Stamkos · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 14:01NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Matt Moulson, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 18:26NYIMatt MartinGWGAssists: Tim Wallace, Marty Reasoner · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P1 19:54NYIMilan JurcinaPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, Mark Streit · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 3:19NYIDavid UllstromAssists: Josh Bailey, Steve Staios · Slap, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 17:25NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: John Tavares, Mark Streit · Snap, 0.09 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:12NYIFrans Nielsen: Holding2 min
- P1 19:06TBLNate Thompson: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:27NYIDylan Reese: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:25TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:55TBLMarc-Andre Bergeron: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:36TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:22NYIMilan Jurcina: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:17TBLSteven Stamkos: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Pyatt – Purcell4:55
xG 0.61–0.26 (70%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Hall – Moore – Connolly2:50
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Thompson – Pyatt – Tyrell3:57
xG 0.01–0.10 (12%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Malone – Purcell5:43
xG 0.04–0.14 (20%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Hedman8:35
xG 0.66–0.47 (58%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Clark – Bergeron3:22
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Gervais7:46
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 8–5goals 0–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Moulson – Tavares12:13
xG 0.94–0.61 (61%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Rolston – Nielsen – Okposo10:50
xG 0.24–0.06 (79%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Wallace – Bailey – Ullstrom6:47
xG 0.20–0.06 (78%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Reasoner – Haley – Martin6:26
xG 0.14–0.17 (45%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMottau – Reese13:00
xG 0.71–0.40 (64%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Streit – Hamonic10:57
xG 0.28–0.12 (71%)attempts 11–6goals 2–1
- Staios – Jurcina12:38
xG 0.19–0.53 (26%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).