Tue, Dec 6, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Detroit Red Wings 2, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 010 | 19 | 110 | 229 |
| STL | 08 | 113 | 25 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:42DETJohan FranzenPPAssists: Jiri Hudler, Jimmy Howard · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 9:20STLAlexander SteenPPAssists: Jason Arnott · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 0:45STLDavid BackesPPAssists: T.J. Oshie, Jason Arnott · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 2:38STLPatrik BerglundGWGAssists: Chris Stewart, David Perron · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 18:40DETJiri HudlerPPAssists: Daniel Cleary, Niklas Kronwall · Tip-in, 0.21 xG2–3
Penalties (17)
- P1 4:25STLAlexander Steen: Holding2 min
- P1 9:02DETDaniel Cleary: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:59STLVladimir Sobotka: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 16:18DETDrew Miller: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:34DETJonathan Ericsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:44STLKevin Shattenkirk: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:01DETNiklas Kronwall: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:38STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:16DETJakub Kindl: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:11DETNiklas Kronwall: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 6:22DETJustin Abdelkader: Charging2 min
- P3 9:03STLKris Russell: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:09DETJohan Franzen: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:17STLDavid Perron: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 17:17STLChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:17DETJohan Franzen: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:58STLAlexander Steen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Berglund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Zetterberg – Hudler9:58
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen9:32
xG 0.48–0.22 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Miller – Abdelkader – Helm2:17
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Miller – Abdelkader3:36
xG 0.06–0.10 (37%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson6:21
xG 0.42–0.06 (87%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Stuart – Kindl4:44
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Kindl2:02
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStewart – Berglund – Perron9:19
xG 0.35–0.16 (68%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Arnott – Nichol – Porter4:14
xG 0.10–0.09 (51%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Langenbrunner – Sobotka – D'Agostini8:02
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie7:38
xG 0.16–0.32 (34%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Pietrangelo11:54
xG 0.40–0.15 (73%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Jackman – Polak11:42
xG 0.31–0.56 (36%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Russell – Shattenkirk12:04
xG 0.09–0.50 (15%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).