Tue, Dec 6, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Phoenix Coyotes 3, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 17 | 011 | 217 | 335 |
| NSH | 113 | 05 | 114 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:09PHXTaylor PyattAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Boyd Gordon · Snap, 0.42 xG1–0
- P1 19:48NSHJack HillenAssists: Craig Smith, Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 1:40PHXRay WhitneyAssists: Radim Vrbata, Martin Hanzal · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 12:53NSHShea WeberPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Patric Hornqvist · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 18:15PHXKeith YandleGWGAssists: Shane Doan, David Schlemko · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:36PHXDerek Morris: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:58NSHDavid Legwand: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:16PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:22PHXDerek Morris: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:41NSHSergei Kostitsyn: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:41PHXAdrian Aucoin: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Spaling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Gordon – Korpikoski10:45
xG 1.03–0.40 (72%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal12:28
xG 0.81–0.51 (61%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Langkow – Doan – Torres13:51
xG 0.43–0.35 (55%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Chipchura – Turris – Boedker7:52
xG 0.04–0.22 (17%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Summers10:24
xG 0.76–0.14 (84%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Ekman-Larsson17:40
xG 1.14–0.72 (61%)attempts 12–20goals 1–0
- Yandle – Schlemko17:41
xG 0.39–0.67 (37%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Smithson – Wilson – Mueller9:04
xG 0.41–0.57 (41%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Kostitsyn – Halischuk – Spaling9:27
xG 0.29–0.49 (37%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Legwand – Hornqvist – Wilson12:47
xG 0.61–0.82 (43%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
- Fisher – Erat – Smith16:27
xG 0.22–0.64 (26%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBlum – Josi11:06
xG 0.50–0.12 (80%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Suter – Weber21:15
xG 0.72–1.06 (41%)attempts 21–18goals 0–1
- Klein – Hillen16:04
xG 0.46–0.90 (34%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).