Tue, Dec 6, 2011·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Boston Bruins 1, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 010 | 017 | 113 | 140 |
| WPG | 111 | 010 | 114 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:21WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Johnny Oduya, Ondrej Pavelec · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 3:16BOSShawn ThorntonAssists: Daniel Paille, Gregory Campbell · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 4:50WPGBryan LittleGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:40WPGJim Slater: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:17WPGCarl Klingberg: Holding2 min
- P2 13:41WPGTim Stapleton: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:45BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:16BOSDavid Krejci: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:44WPGZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:44BOSDavid Krejci: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:17BOSBenoit Pouliot: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Slater
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Krejci – Lucic9:32
xG 0.50–0.37 (57%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Caron6:47
xG 0.27–0.37 (42%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Kelly – Peverley – Pouliot7:50
xG 0.31–0.41 (43%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille5:45
xG 0.19–0.53 (26%)attempts 4–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk12:26
xG 0.65–0.53 (55%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Corvo – Ference2:30
xG 0.15–0.16 (49%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Chara – Corvo2:42
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestJaffray – Stapleton – Klingberg3:46
xG 0.49–0.12 (81%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Wellwood – Ladd – Burmistrov9:37
xG 0.52–0.20 (72%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Glass8:52
xG 0.29–0.32 (47%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Little – Kane12:32
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Byfuglien15:27
xG 0.83–0.45 (65%)attempts 23–10goals 0–0
- Flood – Kulda7:11
xG 0.22–0.07 (75%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Stuart – Bogosian12:10
xG 0.51–1.02 (33%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).