Tue, Dec 6, 2011·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Carolina Hurricanes 6, Calgary Flames 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 09 | 212 | 413 | 634 |
| CGY | 214 | 211 | 310 | 735 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:07CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Olli Jokinen, Brendan Morrison · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 18:51CGYLee StempniakAssists: Blake Comeau, Jay Bouwmeester · Slap, 0.52 xG0–2
- P2 0:42CGYBrendan MorrisonAssists: Olli Jokinen · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 5:39CARJiri TlustyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–3
- P2 13:16CARTim BrentAssists: Eric Staal, Tomas Kaberle · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 14:06CGYRene BourqueUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 1:22CGYBrendan MorrisonAssists: Jarome Iginla, TJ Brodie · Snap, 0.02 xG2–5
- P3 6:41CARTuomo RuutuAssists: Jamie McBain · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–5
- P3 10:57CGYMikael BacklundPPAssists: Lee Stempniak, Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–6
- P3 13:42CAREric StaalUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–6
- P3 18:51CGYJarome IginlaENGWGAssists: Brendan Morrison, Olli Jokinen · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–7
- P3 19:28CARChad LaRoseAssists: Tim Brent, Alexei Ponikarovsky · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–7
- P3 19:55CAREric StaalAssists: Jamie McBain, Tomas Kaberle · Backhand, 0.10 xG6–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:44CGYMikael Backlund: Holding2 min
- P1 8:35CGYJoe Piskula: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:18CARTim Gleason: Interference2 min
- P2 5:39CGYTJ Brodie: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 15:11CGYRoman Horak: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 9:40CARJussi Jokinen: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDwyer – Staal – Stewart3:01
xG 0.32–0.03 (90%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Ponikarovsky – LaRose – Sutter3:33
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- LaRose – Staal – Skinner2:55
xG 0.11–0.11 (50%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Sutter6:53
xG 0.17–0.24 (42%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Gleason5:24
xG 0.32–0.08 (81%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Faulk8:38
xG 0.24–0.10 (71%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Allen – Joslin2:44
xG 0.06–0.06 (47%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestMorrison – Iginla – Jokinen13:03
xG 1.85–0.62 (75%)attempts 19–18goals 3–1
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Horak8:34
xG 0.88–0.31 (74%)attempts 13–7goals 0–2
- Stempniak – Comeau – Backlund12:03
xG 0.99–0.59 (63%)attempts 17–12goals 1–2
- Tanguay – Stajan – Bourque12:01
xG 0.23–0.20 (54%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPiskula – Smith13:07
xG 2.08–0.55 (79%)attempts 18–14goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Butler17:26
xG 1.16–0.53 (69%)attempts 20–15goals 2–1
- Hannan – Brodie13:02
xG 0.63–0.59 (52%)attempts 15–12goals 3–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).