Tue, Dec 6, 2011·Honda Center, Anaheim
Los Angeles Kings 2, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 08 | 18 | 123 | 239 |
| ANA | 27 | 012 | 18 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:59ANABobby RyanAssists: Teemu Selanne · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 17:37ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Matt Beleskey · Deflected, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 19:44LAKSlava VoynovAssists: Dustin Penner, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 8:50LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Jarret Stoll · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 19:11ANABobby RyanGWGAssists: Teemu Selanne · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 14:29LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:39ANANiklas Hagman: Interference2 min
- P3 4:06LAKDustin Penner: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:46ANAToni Lydman: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGagne – Williams – Stoll4:06
xG 0.38–0.06 (86%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Moreau – Hunter – Fraser3:15
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Moreau – Hunter – Loktionov2:27
xG 0.18–0.06 (74%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Stoll – Brown – Penner4:27
xG 0.09–0.04 (68%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Doughty19:23
xG 0.94–0.59 (61%)attempts 24–12goals 1–2
- Johnson – Voynov17:50
xG 0.30–0.48 (39%)attempts 17–14goals 1–1
- Greene – Drewiske10:26
xG 0.39–0.70 (36%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Koivu – Ryan15:33
xG 0.96–0.48 (67%)attempts 16–18goals 2–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Beleskey10:23
xG 0.41–0.13 (76%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Parros – Jacques – Macenauer6:05
xG 0.23–0.10 (69%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Hagman – Cogliano – Smith-Pelly9:01
xG 0.35–0.25 (59%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Fowler21:40
xG 1.18–0.52 (70%)attempts 19–21goals 3–1
- Lydman – Beauchemin2:20
xG 0.25–0.10 (71%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Lydman – Brookbank2:09
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).