Wed, Dec 7, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Washington Capitals 5, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 015 | 112 | 417 | 544 |
| OTT | 06 | 214 | 114 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:12WSHJeff HalpernAssists: Dennis Wideman, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–0
- P2 12:43OTTErik CondraAssists: Erik Karlsson, Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 17:54OTTNick FolignoAssists: Sergei Gonchar · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 9:45WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Brooks Laich, John Carlson · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 13:50WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Dmitry Orlov · Snap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 14:05WSHTroy BrouwerGWGAssists: Marcus Johansson, John Carlson · Slap, 0.32 xG4–2
- P3 16:08OTTMilan MichalekPPAssists: Colin Greening · Snap, 0.24 xG4–3
- P3 19:14WSHJohn CarlsonENAssists: Jeff Halpern · Wrist, 0.57 xG5–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 5:39OTTJesse Winchester: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:39WSHTroy Brouwer: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:23WSHNicklas Backstrom: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:10OTTSergei Gonchar: Interference2 min
- P1 11:10OTTCraig Anderson: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:12OTTChris Neil: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 14:42WSHMathieu Perreault: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:51WSHJason Chimera: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:34WSHJoel Ward: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:46OTTErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:12OTTNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:12WSHBrooks Laich: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:03WSHAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:02WSHJoel Ward: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Winchester won the faceoff against Laich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Brouwer – Johansson8:18
xG 0.68–0.20 (77%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Semin – Ovechkin – Backstrom11:49
xG 0.79–0.33 (71%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Chimera – Ward – Laich10:24
xG 0.63–0.30 (68%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Knuble – Perreault – Eakin6:27
xG 0.02–0.57 (3%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestErskine – Wideman10:02
xG 0.92–0.37 (72%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Wideman – Alzner2:50
xG 0.36–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Wideman – Orlov4:47
xG 0.25–0.07 (78%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Michalek – Foligno6:21
xG 0.66–0.35 (66%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Neil – Konopka – Winchester6:53
xG 0.06–0.23 (22%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Spezza – Greening – Butler4:57
xG 0.14–0.45 (24%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Alfredsson – Spezza – Michalek6:15
xG 0.20–0.51 (28%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Rundblad2:57
xG 0.43–0.03 (93%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Cowen10:45
xG 0.69–0.53 (57%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Gonchar – Lee3:35
xG 0.03–0.12 (23%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).