Thu, Dec 8, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Chicago Blackhawks 3, New York Islanders 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 110 | 19 | 07 | 12 | 328 |
| NYI | 010 | 115 | 18 | 00 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:42CHIMarian HossaPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 2:23CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Marian Hossa, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Slap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 18:21NYITravis HamonicAssists: PA Parenteau, Matt Moulson · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 10:52NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Steve Staios, Frans Nielsen · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- OT 1:34CHIPatrick SharpGWGAssists: Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:10CHIMichael Frolik: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:14NYIJosh Bailey: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:01CHISteve Montador: Interference2 min
- P2 14:20NYIPA Parenteau: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:47CHIPatrick Sharp: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:50CHIPatrick Kane: Elbowing2 min
- P2 18:54CHIDave Bolland: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:12NYISteve Staios: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:26CHIDaniel Carcillo: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Reasoner won the faceoff against Bolland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Sharp – Kruger9:41
xG 0.60–0.19 (76%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Mayers – Brunette – Stalberg2:52
xG 0.50–0.13 (80%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Carcillo – Toews – Kane6:57
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Mayers – Brunette – Carcillo3:26
xG 0.02–0.15 (13%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook16:17
xG 0.67–0.13 (84%)attempts 9–2goals 0–1
- Montador – Lepisto11:04
xG 0.27–0.30 (48%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Keith – Leddy3:09
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Grabner9:17
xG 0.56–0.10 (85%)attempts 7–2goals 1–1
- Reasoner – Wallace – Martin6:38
xG 0.50–0.20 (72%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Rolston – Bailey – Ullstrom6:52
xG 0.13–0.27 (33%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares13:38
xG 0.45–0.82 (35%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Hamonic16:01
xG 0.78–0.47 (62%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Mottau – Reese12:28
xG 0.47–0.25 (66%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Staios – Jurcina10:25
xG 0.19–0.53 (27%)attempts 4–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).