Thu, Dec 8, 2011·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 08 | 15 | 114 | 227 |
| PHI | 115 | 27 | 07 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:38PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Wayne Simmonds · Deflected, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 8:42PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–2
- P2 13:32PHIScott HartnellGWGAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Matt Carle · Tip-in, 0.20 xG0–3
- P2 14:10PITJames NealPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Matt Niskanen · Snap, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 8:21PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Brooks Orpik, Arron Asham · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:42PHIKevin Marshall: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 12:41PITSteve Sullivan: Holding2 min
- P1 13:51PHIScott Hartnell: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:31PHIClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:51PITChris Kunitz: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:37PHIKevin Marshall: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 6:47PITJoe Vitale: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:15PITSteve Sullivan: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:02PHIZac Rinaldo: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:25PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:42PHIHarry Zolnierczyk: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:42PITTyler Kennedy: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:02PITMatt Niskanen: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Talbot won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Dupuis – Vitale7:44
xG 0.50–0.21 (71%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Kennedy – Staal9:09
xG 0.39–0.40 (49%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Sullivan – Malkin – Neal11:07
xG 0.22–0.45 (32%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Martin2:54
xG 0.46–0.22 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Niskanen – Despres2:06
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Martin – Picard2:06
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Hartnell – Giroux10:22
xG 0.53–0.16 (77%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Rinaldo – Zolnierczyk – Couturier3:49
xG 0.04–0.04 (51%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Talbot – van Riemsdyk – Voracek7:01
xG 0.14–0.21 (40%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Brière – Simmonds – Read8:13
xG 0.24–0.35 (40%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Meszaros2:43
xG 0.20–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Timonen – Coburn10:53
xG 0.37–0.23 (61%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Meszaros – Marshall5:41
xG 0.08–0.14 (35%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).